Remember how Trump won in 2016 despite the polling saying he would lose? Well, this time, the polling says he has a massive lead over Kamala Harris – so his eventual lead on election night could be much, much bigger.
At a glance:
- Donald Trump holds a 59.8% chance of winning, according to an election model by J.L. Partners.
- Recent polls in Michigan and Wisconsin have shifted towards Trump, suggesting a potential sweep of seven key battleground states.
- Despite Trump’s lead, the race remains a toss-up, with new polls possibly altering the landscape in the final weeks before the election.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Kamala Harris, with a 59.8% chance of victory, according to J.L. Partners’ election model. This recent shift brings the outcome closer to ‘lean Trump’ territory, although the result is still considered a toss-up.
Key battleground states, including Michigan and Wisconsin, have shown movement in Trump’s favor. This change comes after the release of polls from Trump-leaning pollsters, along with recent Emerson College surveys, all of which pushed the numbers towards the former president. As a result, the most likely outcome could be Trump winning the seven crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
However, it’s important to note that the recent update is based on a mix of polls that historically tend to favor Trump. Data scientist Callum Hunter from J.L. Partners explained that this latest spate of polling might indicate that the numbers are becoming more stable as the final weeks of the election season unfold.
In recent days, a key swing state also flipped for former President Donald Trump, according to an Electoral College map projection. RealClearPolitics now shows that Nevada will flip to Trump, with the former president now 0.2 points ahead of Harris. November 5 is going to be a very, very interesting night. Unless, of course, it takes three weeks to find out the results again.